Pakistan inflation May 2026 projections hit 11.0–11.5 percent as wheat flour and potato prices surge after months of relative calm
Pakistan’s inflation is making an unwelcome comeback. Analysts project the Consumer Price Index for May 2026 at between 11.0 and 11.5 percent year on year. That compares to 10.89 percent in April and just 3.46 percent in May last year. Moreover, it would mark the highest monthly reading in 23 months. Pakistan inflation May 2026 therefore signals a sharp reversal after a period of relative price stability.
Food is leading the charge. On a month-on-month basis, overall inflation sits at just 0.07 percent. However, the food segment alone jumps 1.2 percent. Wheat flour prices climb 9.47 percent month on month. Wheat adds another 5.52 percent. Potatoes rise 5.24 percent. These are everyday staples. Furthermore, lower-income households have little room to absorb these kinds of increases.
Some relief comes from vegetables. Tomato prices fall around 28 percent, while onion prices drop nearly 13 percent. Those declines partially offset the food segment’s overall rise. Still, they do not prevent the broader inflationary push from taking hold.
Outside food, the picture turns more mixed. The transport segment records a slight price decline after the international oil price surge in March, which followed escalating US-Iran-Israel tensions. Petrol Super rises 5.6 percent, but High Speed Diesel drops 23.1 percent. Additionally, the Housing, Water, Electricity, and Gas category edges down 0.79 percent month on month. A nearly 4 percent fall in LPG prices and a 3.8 percent cut in electricity charges drive that decline.
With inflation now sitting between 11.0 and 11.5 percent, real interest rates climb to between 0 and 50 basis points. That still falls well below Pakistan’s historic average of 200 to 300 basis points. Meanwhile, Topline Research puts average inflation at 7.1 percent for FY2026 and projects 8.2 percent for FY2027. Finally, the direction is clear — food prices are rising, and ordinary Pakistanis will feel it most.
