The government is likely to increase petrol prices in the upcoming fuel price review. High speed diesel will likely remain almost unchanged, provided the government does not introduce any additional petroleum levy. Consequently, petrol price likely to rise again this week according to internal estimates of the oil industry. For petrol, the ex refinery price may jump from Rs 270.03 per litre to Rs 274.77 per litre. The main reason behind the expected hike is the rise in the international Free on Board price. This increased from 139.03 dollars per barrel to 143.01 dollars per barrel.

A slight decline in premiums and incidental costs offered some relief. However, it was not enough to offset the overall increase. Therefore, petrol price likely to rise again this week as the removal of a previous Pakistan State Oil adjustment adds to the net increase. In comparison, high speed diesel may see only a minor increase of Rs 0.20 per litre. The price would move from Rs 334.74 per litre to Rs 334.93 per litre. While the international FOB price for diesel rose sharply from 160.41 dollars per barrel to 172.99 dollars per barrel, a major reduction in customs duty and incidental costs largely neutralized the increase.

Industry calculations show that customs duty alone declined by more than Rs 20 per litre. This helped keep diesel prices broadly stable despite rising international rates. The exchange rate remained largely steady during the review period at around Rs 278.9 per US dollar. This limited its impact on final pricing. Therefore, petrol price likely to rise again this week while diesel consumers may benefit from policy measures that softened the impact of international market fluctuations.

Final consumer prices will depend on the government’s decision on taxes and levies. Any last minute exchange rate adjustments before the official notification could also affect the outcome.