In a significant shift in diplomatic rhetoric, US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard has named Pakistan alongside Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran as states posing a potential direct threat to the United States. Presenting the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment to the Senate Intelligence Committee, Gabbard warned that Islamabad’s advancing missile delivery systems, which carry both nuclear and conventional payloads, are increasingly capable of reaching the American homeland. Specifically, the report suggests that Pakistan’s long-range ballistic missile development could eventually include Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) with the range to strike US soil.
The assessment projects a sharp escalation in global missile threats over the next decade, anticipating that the number of missiles targeting the US homeland could rise from the current 3,000 to over 16,000 by 2035. According to Gabbard, these identified nations are likely studying US missile defense strategies to refine their own deterrence and offensive programs. While the report acknowledges the broader geopolitical landscape, it places Pakistan in a category of states that the US intelligence community views with increasing caution regarding strategic weaponry.
The inclusion of Pakistan has drawn mixed reactions from regional experts. Some scholars view this as a continuation of established US policy aimed at curbing the acquisition of sensitive technologies, citing previous sanctions on Pakistani entities. However, others argue that the assessment may be overstated, noting that Pakistan’s Shaheen-III missile—with a known range of less than 2,800 kilometers—is designed primarily as a deterrent against India. These observers suggest that Islamabad has no strategic interest in targeting the United States and that such labels could strain the budding bilateral relationship between the two nations.
Beyond the nuclear issue, the report highlights enduring security challenges in South Asia, particularly the volatile relationship between Pakistan and India. The intelligence community warned that while both nations currently seek to avoid open conflict, the risk of nuclear escalation remains high, particularly following the Pahalgam attack that triggered a recent war. Additionally, the report noted growing tensions along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, as Islamabad faces increased violence from militant groups that the Taliban denies harboring.
The hearing also provided a grim update on the ongoing conflict with Iran, which began in late February. Gabbard noted that while the Iranian regime’s capabilities have been significantly degraded by “Operation Epic Fury,” Tehran and its proxies remain a potent threat to US interests in the Middle East. The assessment confirms that President Trump was warned of potential retaliatory strikes and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a vital global oil route—prior to launching the joint strikes with Israel, underscoring the high stakes of the current regional instability.
