Rising tensions in the Middle East are beginning to disrupt global fertiliser supply chains, sending international urea prices sharply higher and raising concerns for agricultural markets around the world. The developments are particularly important for countries that depend heavily on imported fertilisers to sustain crop production.
According to recent reports, international urea prices have surged to around $740–$750 per tonne, levels rarely seen in recent years. The spike follows disruptions linked to reduced gas exports from Qatar and the closure of the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. These developments have affected fertiliser production across Gulf countries, a region responsible for supplying nearly one-third of the world’s urea.
The impact on global markets has been immediate. With shipping routes linked to the Strait of Hormuz facing disruptions, fertiliser shipments destined for several import-dependent countries in South Asia remain stranded offshore. This has tightened supplies in regional markets and pushed prices even higher.
For Pakistan, the situation carries significant implications because urea plays a crucial role in the cultivation of major crops such as wheat and rice. Any disruption in fertiliser availability or sudden price increases can affect farm productivity and raise overall agricultural costs.
The scale of the international price surge becomes clearer when compared with domestic rates. Under current global conditions, the landed cost of imported urea is estimated to range between Rs13,700 and Rs14,700 per bag. In contrast, the domestic market price in Pakistan currently stands at roughly Rs4,400 per bag.
Analysts say this large price gap—more than three times the local price—highlights the financial pressure farmers could have faced if Pakistan had relied more heavily on imported fertiliser during the crisis. In many countries, rising fertiliser prices force farmers to reduce application rates, which can lower crop yields and eventually contribute to higher food prices.
Fortunately, Pakistan’s domestic fertiliser industry has continued supplying the market despite the global disruption. Local manufacturers, supported by domestically available natural gas and existing production capacity, have maintained steady production and distribution.
Industry representatives say this continuity has helped shield Pakistani farmers from extreme volatility in global fertiliser markets. By maintaining local supply at stable prices, domestic producers have played a key role in protecting agricultural productivity and preventing a sudden rise in farming costs during a period of international uncertainty.
