Pakistan’s mango industry is facing a difficult season. Exporters expect shipments to fall by nearly 30 percent this year. Conflict in the Middle East is disrupting trade routes, weakening demand, and pushing up shipping costs.

This Pakistan mango exports decline translates into real numbers. Exporters estimate overseas shipments will drop by around 30,000 tonnes. That puts total shipments at roughly 80,000 tonnes for the current season, compared with last year. It’s a significant hit. Pakistan ranks as the world’s fourth-largest mango exporter and earns roughly $110 million annually from this single crop.

The Middle East remains Pakistan’s most critical export destination. It accounts for nearly 80 percent of mango shipments, according to the All Pakistan Fruit and Vegetable Exporters Association. However, ongoing tensions involving Iran have complicated things. Disruptions in Afghanistan and broader uncertainty across the Gulf region have dampened demand too.

Waheed Ahmed, chief patron of the exporters’ association, summed up the situation directly. “We export almost 80 percent of our mangoes to the Gulf region, Iran, and Afghanistan, but conflict has affected all these markets,” he said. He also noted that a tentative ceasefire between the United States and Iran offered some relief. Still, it arrived too late. The current mango season typically lasts only about three months.

Rising transportation costs have added further strain. Shipping a 25-tonne container of mangoes cost around $1,400 last year. However, freight charges have increased sharply. Disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and rising energy prices are largely to blame.

Domestic demand hasn’t offered much cushion either. Households facing inflationary pressures have cut back on discretionary spending. Seasonal fruit purchases are among the first to go. Therefore, exporters are absorbing pressure from both international and local fronts at once.

Pakistan produces more than two dozen mango varieties, including the popular Sindhri and Chaunsa. The country harvested an estimated 1.8 million tonnes of mangoes last year. This makes the fruit one of Pakistan’s most valuable horticultural exports. Despite this scale, the sector has increasingly struggled. Extreme weather events, water shortages, and shifting trade dynamics have all added pressure in recent years.

Finally, this season’s numbers suggest the challenges go well beyond a single bad year. Regional instability remains unresolved. Exporters may need to brace for continued uncertainty even after this harvest ends.