Pakistan’s annual mineral exports could climb from about $3 billion to $8 billion with better policies and more investment, according to a report by Oil and Gas Development Company Limited (OGDC) reported on Friday, October 16, 2026. An analysis by the Institute of Cost and Management Accountants of Pakistan (ICMA) carries the same range, and ties it to stronger governance and security.
The OGDC report counts 92 minerals discovered in Pakistan, 52 of them extracted commercially. It values the country’s reserves at $8 trillion, yet the mining sector contributes less than 3 percent of GDP. That reserve figure is an estimate, not a measured one. A recent Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) policy analysis cites a range of $6 trillion to $8 trillion.
Over 90 percent of exports are raw or semi-processed
The target is not new, and neither is the explanation for the gap. Speaking at the launch of the China-Pakistan Mineral Cooperation Forum on January 28, 2026, Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal said more than 90 percent of mineral exports are raw or semi-processed, and only about 40 percent of the country’s land has been geologically mapped. He said exports could reach $6 to $8 billion a year within this decade, with over 350,000 direct and indirect jobs, if processing plants, smelters and refineries are built.
The starting line is also disputed. The News reported Iqbal putting current mineral exports at about $2 billion a year at the same event, while the OGDC and ICMA material uses $3 billion. Readers comparing targets should check which baseline each one uses.
Reko Diq is the biggest single piece
Barrick, which owns 50 percent of Reko Diq and operates it, targets first production by the end of 2028. Phase 1 is planned to reach 240,000 tonnes of copper and 297,000 ounces of gold a year on a 100 percent basis, according to the company’s filings.
Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb said in April 2025 that the mine could bring in $2.8 billion in annual export earnings once production begins. If that estimate holds, Reko Diq alone would cover more than half of the $5 billion gap between $3 billion and $8 billion, by Hype’s arithmetic. It would also arrive no earlier than 2029, so none of the increase is near-term.
A US refinery deal and a November investor forum
Frontier Works Organization (FWO) signed an agreement with Missouri-based US Strategic Metals in September 2025 for a poly-metallic refinery in Pakistan. Profit reported in January that the first batch of rare earth elements and critical minerals had been shipped to the company. Dawn reported the first phase of the arrangement at about $500 million of investment.
The Pakistan Minerals Investment Forum 2026 is set for November 12 and 13 at the Jinnah Convention Centre in Islamabad. Organisers moved it from April 8 and 9 over uncertainty in international travel.
