This year’s powerful El Nino weather pattern could cause an estimated 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide through February. The Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago produced this projection as the pattern pushes global temperatures higher. Researchers declared the phenomenon in June, and it is expected to peak later this year.

Experts say this El Nino could become the strongest on record. Moreover, it is expected to intensify the effects of human-driven climate change. Researchers estimate that global land temperatures could remain 1.2°C above normal in the coming months. As a result, the world could see 44 percent more extremely hot days than in a typical year.

Developing countries are expected to bear much of the projected death toll. The Sahel region of Africa could record an additional 66,800 heat-related deaths. Nearly half of these deaths are expected to occur in Nigeria alone. Meanwhile, Indonesia could see around 19,300 additional deaths.

The Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia could collectively record another 19,400 deaths. Additionally, researchers project 15,800 additional deaths in India and 13,300 in Brazil. Together, these figures highlight how unevenly the impact could fall across regions.

Researchers assessed temperature-related mortality across 24,378 regions worldwide. They then combined these findings with long-range weather forecasts to produce the projections. Therefore, the estimates draw on a broad and detailed dataset rather than a narrow sample.

The report follows a United Nations warning that El Nino poses a significant threat to global health. Still, researchers say the projections could help governments prepare in advance. Heat warnings, cooling centers and hydration stations could all help protect vulnerable populations. Finally, early preparation may determine how much of this projected toll can still be avoided.